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IC Insights: DRAM prices will begin to decline this year

Research institutions IC Insights published the latest report, DRAM factory in 2017 fourth quarter sales amount will reach a new peak history, estimated at $21.1 billion, compared with $12.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2016 was up 65%. IC Insights said, according to the historical experience, DRAM industry in the near future, may be a long boom down between the pattern, because as the DRAM capacity increase, prices will begin to decline, this year's decline is more afraid of up to 2 years.

Back in 2017, thanks to demand for data center, drive server DRAM hotting up, at the same time, smart phones and other mobile devices products with low density DRAM power consumption also synchronous growth, 2017 DRAM prices quotes all the way up, in the fourth quarter is still strong, IC Insights estimates, 2017 fourth quarter DRAM sales amount will be $21.1 billion, increased 65%, a record to a record high.

IC Insights forecast, DRAM market growth will reach 74% in 2017, the size of the $31 billion, so the history of the new record, there are five main factors, including storage capacity supply co., LTD., 20 nanometers technology difficulty improving DRAM, drawing DRAM, server and mobile DRAM demand growth.

For example, in mobile memory, the smartphone is equipped with a DRAM memory capacity, the iPhone 8 has 2GB of DRAM, and the iPhone X has 3GB of DRAM. The samsung Galaxy S8 USES 4GB DRAM. Both huawei's P10 Plus and HTC U11 are equipped with 6GB of DRAM. Razer's first smartphone, the One Plus 5, from Singapore, which is known for its video gaming devices, has 8GB of DRAM.

But IC Insights remind, according to the historical trend, DRAM industry in the near future, may experience boom between the long-term downward trend, because with the increase of production capacity increase and DRAM, prices will begin to decline, the longest could be 2 years.

Samsung and SK hynix have announced new capital spending that will be rescheduled for the second half of 2018, which could ease the DRAM rally in the first half of 2018. Samsung's south Korean pyeongtaek plant is expected to produce DRAM in the fourth quarter of 2018, and SK hynix has announced plans to build a new production line in wuxi, China.

IC Insights also said that samsung and SK hynix DRAM before 2 companies will have opened new capacity, large meguiar's can't sit in third place, especially the DRAM industry competition is intense, meguiar's is likely to build new fabs.