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NAND flash supply surplus in the second quarter

Market analysts predict that slight oversupply of NAND flash memory for eMMC, UFS, and SSD storage in the first few months of 2018 will continue into the middle of the year. China imports about 200 billion U.S. dollars each year, the largest trade deficit in the global semiconductor market. Currently, Yangtze River Storage (YMTC) is the only Chinese company that is committed to 3D NAND technology, and will bring some products to market with the support of Ziguang in 2020. The goal of Yangtze River Storage (YMTC) is to become a first-line 3D NAND supplier in 2030.

On the supply side, some manufacturers have slowed their production expansion in response to market trends in the first half of this year. Therefore, the next-generation 9x-layer NAND flash memory process will not be shipped on a large scale until 2019. As Yangtze River Storage (YMTC), a relatively new player in the memory industry, may start shipping a large amount of NAND flash memory in 2019, it will have limited impact on the supply in 2018.

According to Gartner, an information technology research and consulting firm, although China’s Yangtze River Storage (YMTC) has the investment power to improve the national memory technology and engineering team to improve China’s memory technology, the biggest obstacle to China's memory industry is still how to deal with major memory manufacturers. Get mature memory technology.

Market analysis based on NAND flash memory includes eMMC and UFS storage for mobile phones, tablets and PCs, and flash memory used in M.2 and SATA-based SSDs for consumer and business computers. Due to the lower prices, the demand in the channel market will also recover. In addition, the increase in the average NAND flash memory capacity of smartphones will also promote stable cargo space growth.

Some manufacturers postponed plans to expand production capacity. This delay coupled with the expected increase in demand may cause prices to increase due to supply shortages later this year. Despite the increase in demand, the growth momentum in the second quarter remained weak. However, after entering the second half of the busy season, overall demand will increase, which may lead to higher prices in the second half of 2018.

All in all, the NAND flash memory market will experience a slight oversupply in the first half of 18, but it may turn into a tight supply in the second half of the year. As suppliers with DRAM resources adopt a bundling strategy, price fluctuations of NAND flash products will return to stable levels in the second half of the year. The decline in the prices of eMMCs, UFS, PCs, enterprise SSDs, and other products will ease.